聯繫我們
Ebury London
100 Victoria Street
London
SW1E 5JL
+44 (0) 20 3872 6670
[email protected]
Ebury.com
央行會議前夕,市場呈現觀望態勢
- 返回博客首頁
- Latest
4 March 2024
Chief Risk Officer at Ebury. Committed to mitigating FX risk through tailored strategies, detailed market insight, and FXFC forecasting for Bloomberg.
過去兩周市場異常平靜。
USD
儘管上周公布的1月份個人消費支出 (PCE) 通膨報告並未為早前的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 添加太多有用信息,但通膨意外似乎呈上升趨勢。 再加上美國勞動市場沒有任何嚴重放緩的跡象,似乎排除了聯準會短期內降息的可能,而首次降息目前要到7月才能完全被市場消化。
這一觀點將在周五公佈的2月薪資報告中得到驗證。 我們認為,最關鍵的是月平均薪資增幅。 這一數字大大強於預期。 目前,過去三個月的平均年增長率約為6%。 我們認為聯準會降息的能力將受到限制,直到我們看到薪資成長出現明顯的放緩。
GBP
上週公佈的數據幾乎沒有改變市場的普遍觀點,即英國經濟比預期更具彈性,而且英國央行不會急於在歐洲降息之前降息。 儘管英國經濟在去年下半年進入了技術性衰退,但參考最新的商業活動採購經理人指數(PMI),這種衰退不僅極其溫和,而且大機率是短暫的。
本週三的春季預算公告可能包括額外的財政刺激措施,因為保守黨試圖在即將到來的大選前吸引選民。 財政大臣傑里米·亨特可能會削減所得稅或國民保險。 也有人猜測要廢除遺產稅,我們認為這是消除民調中巨大赤字的積極的嘗試。 如果得到證實,這些措施可能會對英鎊利好。
EUR
一系列不如預期的經濟消息,以及歐洲央行理事會成員大多偏向鷹派的態度,導致市場幾乎完全排除了4月降息的可能性,並將首次降息的預期時間推遲到6月。 上週的通膨數據略高於預期,而花旗集團(Citigroup)的歐元區經濟意外指數(Economic Surprise Index)也達到了4月以來的最高水準。
2月份的通膨數據、缺乏及時的薪資成長資訊以及好於預期的經濟數據都表明,歐洲央行不會過於強烈地反對推遲降息。 我們預計拉加德將在很大程度上重申她在上次會議上的講話,主要關注將是該行最新的經濟預測。 這一結果應該會適度支持歐元。
CNY
上與前一周類似,人民幣兌美元匯率上週收盤幾乎持平,大致處於新興市場貨幣排名的中間位置。
上週公佈的2月採購經理人指數(PMI)數據略優於預期,但這並不足以說明情況已經開始好轉。 事實上,這些指數持續在50附近徘徊(製造業採購經理人指數實際上低於 50),這似乎更能說明經濟疲軟而非復甦。
這週的重點關注對像是即將召開的兩會。 中國最近發出的信號顯示政府決心支持經濟。 市場也將密切關注2024年的經濟目標。 就數據而言,週二將看到PMI拼圖中唯一缺少的一塊——財新服務業PMI。 週四,將公佈二月份貿易數據。 週六的通膨數據預計將顯示消費者通貨緊縮的結束。
Cookies和私隱條例
本網站使用 Cookie 來確保您獲得最佳體驗。 欲了解更多信息,請參閱我們的 Privacy Notice接受 Settings Reject
Privacy Overview
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement | 1 year | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional | 11 months | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". |
viewed_cookie_policy | 11 months | The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_ga | 2 years | The _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors. |
_ga_XM483R1PGD | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. |
CONSENT | 2 years | YouTube sets this cookie via embedded youtube-videos and registers anonymous statistical data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE | 5 months 27 days | A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. |
YSC | session | YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. |
yt-remote-connected-devices | never | YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. |
yt-remote-device-id | never | YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_lfa | 2 years | This cookie is set by the provider Leadfeeder. This cookie is used for identifying the IP address of devices visiting the website. The cookie collects information such as IP addresses, time spent on website and page requests for the visits.This collected information is used for retargeting of multiple users routing from the same IP address. |
visitor_id883673 | 10 years | No description |
visitor_id883673-hash | 10 years | No description |