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美國勞工通報數據低迷,美元應聲下跌
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11 March 2024
Chief Risk Officer at Ebury. Committed to mitigating FX risk through tailored strategies, detailed market insight, and FXFC forecasting for Bloomberg.
隨著對抗通膨進展,世界主要央行進一步接近降息。
USD
上周五發布的美国勞動力市場報告疲軟。 雖然二月份的就業創造數據保持強勁,但一月份的就業數據低迷。失業率意外上升了0.2%(仍處於非常低的水平),而且重要的是,每月工資增幅並不十分積極,三個月平均年化增長率略低於4%——是兩年來最緩慢的一次。
這份報告驗證了聯準會的觀點,通貨緊縮的趨勢依然存在,經濟沒有回暖,很大可能從 6 月開始可以放鬆一些貨幣緊縮政策。 雖然美元因此受到影響,但其波動相對溫和,因為與 G10除日本外其他國家的利差變化不大,預計其他主要經濟體的央行也將採取寬鬆政策。
GBP
上週的春季預算的公佈並沒有令市場感到意外,因為其中的稅收刺激力度不大,而且很大程度上已被市場消化。 正如預期的那樣,國民保險削減至 8%,延長了石油和天然氣生產商的暴利稅,但所得稅起徵點沒有變化。 OBR 的最新成長預測也上調至 2026 年,這與我們今年迄今看到的總體更樂觀的英國經濟消息一致。
更重要的是本週將發布的勞工數據和月度國內生產毛額數據。 勞動市場將持續呈現充分就業態勢,薪資漲幅將超過6%,而經濟預計將在1月恢復成長。 就目前情況而言,市場直到八月才能完全消化降息的可能性,這一強硬的立場為英鎊提供了堅實的支撐。
EUR
上週的歐洲央行會議給市場傳遞了明顯的訊號,即降息即將到來,不是在4月的下次會議上,而是在6月的會議上。 歐洲央行行長拉加德表示,儘管確實下調了通膨預期,但尚未就降低利率進行討論,拉加德指出,將在 6 月的會議上掌握更多資訊。
最近經濟數據中的好消息支持了稍後的降息:採購經理人指數已脫離低點,但仍停滯不前。 由於強勁的旅遊收入,尤其是來自美國遊客的旅遊收入,法國、西班牙和義大利的表現超出了預期,彌補了德國製造業的疲軟。 然而,與美國的經濟表現相比仍然存在巨大差距,我們認為歐元的反彈可能是短暫的。
CNY
儘管人民幣是表現最差的新興市場貨幣之一,但截至本週,人民幣兌美元匯率基本上沒有變化。 中國2月的最新數據基本上樂觀。 正面的貿易數據和明顯高於預期的通膨(0.7%)(在經歷了四個月的通貨緊縮之後回到正值),足以抵銷財新服務業 PMI 數據略顯平淡的負面影響。
除經濟數據外,市場也將持續關注兩會。 考慮到財政預算赤字目標定為 3%(低於 2023 年修訂後的 3.8%),上週宣布的 2024 年 “5% 左右 “的增長目標(與 2023 年持平)似乎表示政府對未來充滿希望。 除財政預算外,中國還計劃出售1萬億元(1,390 億美元)的超長期中央政府特別債券,用於資助重大項目和增加投資。
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