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商品貨幣因石油上漲而走強
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9 April 2024
Chief Risk Officer at Ebury. Committed to mitigating FX risk through tailored strategies, detailed market insight, and FXFC forecasting for Bloomberg.
令人驚訝的是,美元對井噴式的三月就業報告反應平淡。
USD
美國另一份優秀的就業報告打消了人們對美國勞動市場實力的疑慮。 由於淨新增就業機會遠高於預期,且失業率下降,聯準會可能因薪資成長受到遏制(至少在年度數據中受到遏制)而感到欣慰。
然而,利率市場現在已經消化了上次聯準會會議的所有鴿派情緒,他們認為有50%的可能性要到7月才會降息。 美元並沒有從中受益太多,本週收盤兌大多數主要貨幣都走低。 事實上,週五強勁的非農業就業報告之後美元的反彈非常短暫,因為投資者將注意力轉向週三的最新消費者物價指數報告和聯邦公開市場委員會會議紀要。
GBP
過去幾週在服務業帶動下,英國的經濟活動展現出復甦的景象,通膨非常緩慢下降,但仍未達到英格蘭銀行目標水準。 商業活動PMI數據和1月份GDP數據都顯示經濟成長在今年年初回歸,雖然第一季成長數據要到5月初才會公佈,但本週五的2月份數據可能會進一步支持這一假設。
在本週的GDP數據沒有任何意外的情況下,英鎊可能會受到歐元區(歐洲央行會議)或美國(3月通膨報告)的影響。 英格蘭銀行成員格林本周也將發表演說。 雖然貨幣政策委員會3月的溝通偏向鴿派,但我們認為委員會成員不會急於發出放寬政策的信號,因為最近的數據表明英國至少在 6 月之前不太可能降息。
EUR
歐元區通膨持續放緩,接近歐洲央行的目標,但通貨緊縮趨勢尚未像美國那樣顯示出任何停滯跡象。 不僅整體通膨數據接近三年來的最低水平,關鍵核心數據也降至兩年來的最低水平。 雖然美國的通膨週期比歐洲的通膨週期領先了大約六個月,但迄今為止的消息仍然讓理事會成員感到滿意。
採購經理人指數數據的修訂證實,經濟很可能再次小幅度擴張。 總而言之,我們預計歐洲央行將對這一利好消息做出反應,維持本周利率不變,但強烈暗示將在下次會議上降息 0.25%,這應該會讓市場相信首次降息即將在 6 月到來。
CNY
清明節假期導致3月商業活動資料缺失。 財新PMI數據雖然沒有像上一期國家統計局公佈的數據那樣顯示出上行驚喜,但也顯示製造業和服務業都在復甦。 然而,但該數據不足以阻止人民幣兌美元繼續下行,美元兌人民幣匯率進一步脫離7.20關口。
與前一周相反,本週的經濟日曆相當繁忙。 週四,人們的注意力將集中在通膨數據上,預計該數據將顯示消費者物價連續第二個月出現正成長。 週五,三月的貿易數據將出爐。 除此之外,未來幾天將發布貸款數據。
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