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由於美國經濟活動數據強勁,美元仍維持在高位
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22 April 2024
Chief Risk Officer at Ebury. Committed to mitigating FX risk through tailored strategies, detailed market insight, and FXFC forecasting for Bloomberg.
USD
美國的宏觀經濟數據仍然令人印象深刻,尤其是上周非常強勁的 3 月零售銷售報告。 富有彈性的消費者支出和頑固的通膨壓力引發了市場重新審視聯準會今年的降息預期,而聯準會官員的言論一致鷹派,與這種預期基本相符。
期貨市場目前認為6月降息的可能性很小,幾乎不認為聯準會在 11 月的會議上全面降息。 美元因此反彈,但在我們看來,目前的水平反映出美元估值嚴重過高。 進一步上漲將需要比我們迄今為止所看到的更好的通膨數據。 在這方面,週五的 PCE 通膨數據將非常重要,市場預計整體通膨數據將略有上升,核心通膨數據將溫和下降。
GBP
上周英國2月薪資和3月通膨都出乎意料地上漲,顯示英國央行比歐洲央行更難證明降息的合理性。 儘管如此,市場參與者繼續認為英國央行6月降息的可能性為 50/50。 我們認為,高利率、持續的通膨壓力和強勁的經濟成長為2024年英鎊描繪了一幅建設性的圖景。
本周英國公佈的採購經理人指數(PMI)數據與我們在過去幾個月的月度國內生產總值(GDP)數據中看到的健康擴張相一致。 英國經濟很可能在今年年初擺脫技術性衰退,這一前景似乎越來越明朗,明天的數據將顯示第二季初的持續擴張。
EUR
歐洲央行成員關於未來政策舉措的溝通大多確定首次降息將在六月進行,行長拉加德在上週的演講中再次強烈暗示未來將降息。 然而,六月會議之後的進一步降息仍充滿變數,將完全取決於數據。
數據中看到的經濟改善、核心通膨之間的剩餘差距以及聯準會通訊中的鷹派轉變都阻礙了激進的降息週期。 與我們在美國看到的情況不同,目前市場對年底前三次降息的預期比幾週前要保守得多,但這仍然取決於通膨持續下降的趨勢。 本週歐元區不會有通膨數據,但週二的採購經理人指數數據顯示經濟成長持續反彈。
CNY
過去幾天,中國發布了大量經濟數據。 儘管出現了一些意外,但人民幣仍然非常穩定,兌美元僅小幅貶值,這使得美元兌人民幣在上週末接近7.24關卡。 中國第一季GDP成長意外上行,年增率從5.2%加速至5.3%。 這一數字為中國今年可能實現5%的成長目標提供了一些支持,但3月份的數據表明這一勢頭並不強勁。 零售銷售表現不佳以及房地產市場持續疲軟的跡象表明復甦並不均衡,經濟仍不穩固。
正如預期,本週LPR利率與一周前的MLF一樣保持不變。 就經濟數據而言,本週將是異常平靜的一周,週六公佈的 3 月份工業利潤數據是唯一值得注意的數據。
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