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通膨數據升溫,美元飆升
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15 April 2024
Chief Risk Officer at Ebury. Committed to mitigating FX risk through tailored strategies, detailed market insight, and FXFC forecasting for Bloomberg.
USD
3月份消費者物價指數報告證實了人們陷入對美國通貨膨脹的擔憂。 主要核心債券連續第三個月按月上漲0.4%,與近5%的年化成長率一致。
一個充分就業、利率略高於通膨且財政赤字龐大的經濟體,不會特別有利於降息,而且市場已經從幾週前預計2024年降息六次降至現在的不到兩次。 這導致利率重新定價以及美元兌幾乎所有其他貨幣的走強。 本週,聯準會的官方演講對於衡量聯準會的觀點在多大程度上證明這種大幅重新定價的合理性至關重要。
GBP
正面的月度GDP報告引發了人們對英國經濟將繼續好於預期的樂觀情緒。 英國經濟2月環比小幅成長 0.1%,不過 1 月數據從最初的+0.2%預期上調至+0.3%,這令人感到驚喜。 這可能確保去年的技術衰退既淺又短暫,除非三月產出大幅收縮。
然而,英鎊兌美元匯率普遍遭到拋售,儘管其表現略優於歐元。 本週將是英國央行降息時機的關鍵,迄今為止,人們對降息的預期幾乎與對聯準會的預期一樣被推遲。 週二的薪資資訊和週三的通膨數據將是判斷英國通貨緊縮過程是將持續下去還是陷入停滯的關鍵。
EUR
歐元區通膨持續放緩,接近歐洲央行的目標,但通貨緊縮趨勢尚未像美國那樣顯示出任何停滯跡象。 不僅整體通膨數據接近三年來的最低水平,關鍵核心數據也降至兩年來的最低水平。 雖然美國的通膨週期比歐洲的通膨週期領先了大約六個月,但迄今為止的消息仍然讓理事會成員感到滿意。
採購經理人指數數據的修訂證實,經濟很可能再次小幅度擴張。 總而言之,我們預計歐洲央行將對這一利好消息做出反應,維持本周利率不變,但強烈暗示將在下次會議上降息0.25%,這應該會讓市場相信首次降息即將在6月到來。
CNY
人民幣經受住了美元普遍走強的風暴,跑贏了大多數其他貨幣,兌美元匯率在本週收盤時幾乎沒有變化。 儘管國內經濟數據引發了人們對經濟表現的擔憂。 3月CPI通膨略高於0%,遠低於預期。 信貸和貿易數據也較為消極。
本週將是對這些重燃的擔憂的考驗,宏觀數據仍將是重中之重。 週二將公佈第一季國內生產毛額(GDP)成長情況以及一系列關鍵的3月數據。 目前,情況看起來很模糊,先前發布的謹慎樂觀情緒讓位給上週數據後的擔憂。 今天,中國人民銀行連續第二次決定透過MLF釋放流動性,這表明面對人民幣貶值壓力,央行變得更加謹慎。
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