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數據較少的一週主要貨幣保持穩定
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27 February 2024
Chief Risk Officer at Ebury. Committed to mitigating FX risk through tailored strategies, detailed market insight, and FXFC forecasting for Bloomberg.
上週的經濟報告或貨幣政策消息較少,大多數主要貨幣在較窄區間內交易。
USD
上週公佈的美國數據在很大程度上繼續描繪了美國經濟狀況的強勁圖景。 綜合PMI因服務業指數下降而小幅下滑。 不過,與歐元區相反,所有主要指數均處於擴張區間,製造業PMI已創17個月新高。 此外,首次申請失業救濟的人數數據持續重申美國勞動市場的強勁,新增申請失業救濟人數退到20萬左右。
GBP
商業活動PMI指數增強了人們對2024年英國經濟成長前景的樂觀情緒。 綜合數據略高於預期,為53.3,這符合服務業驅動下製造業滯後的的健康的商業擴張態勢。 這些數據與歐元區的數據形成鮮明對比,我們認為這是英鎊在2024年迄今表現優異的主要原因。
EUR
歐元區PMI數據持續顯示經濟萎縮,經濟仍受到製造業和中國市場需求低迷的拖累。 然而,也出現了一些樂觀的跡象。
值得注意的是,7 個月後,服務業指數已回到50,即收縮與擴張之間的界線。 綜合指數升至 48.9,顯示我們可能開始看到黑夜後的曙光。 本週的通膨報告將是歐洲央行未來降息時機的關鍵,我們仍預期歐洲央行將在聯準會之前降息。
本週,市場和聯準會都將關注通膨指標即個人消費者支出(PCE)指數是否在1月顯示出與CPI相同的令人不安的趨勢。 任何意外的上行都可能會讓美元突破二月的浮動區間。
CNY
上週結束時,人民幣兌美元匯率幾乎沒有變化,大致處於新興市場貨幣排行的中間位置。 本周初,人們關注的焦點是5年期LPR下降了25個基點,這表明當局支持房地產行業的決心。 本周公布的數據證實,房地產業的情況仍然悲慘,新房價持續下跌。
從正面的角度來看,中國股市持續復甦,主要指數升至2023年底以來的最高水平,得益於積極的全球風險情緒。 儘管如此,上述有關當局有針對性地幫助房地產市場和春節期間支出的消息也令人鼓舞。 現在註意力轉向業務活動數據。 官方PMI及製造業財新PMI將於週五公佈,財新服務業PMI將於下週二公佈。
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